Mega-quake; Is Washington Ready?

Experts predict a mega-thrust earthquake will devastate Washington in the next 100 years. It could be very real that the Pacific Northwesterners will experience a 9.0 Mega Quake in their lifetime. The last 9.0 magnitude earthquake in Washington was in 1700. Are we ready for the next Mega-quake? Analyses by Oregon State University Marine Geologist Chris Goldfinger and his associates have revealed the fault already has enough energy to slip 30 feet in the “blink of an eye”. It could happen at any time.

This jumbo seismic wave will be the largest and most destructive earthquake we have ever experienced!  It is predicted to be a massive 9.0 magnitude or higher. That is equivalent to nearly 32 gigatons of TNT, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. 32 gigatons = 32 billion tons = 32,000,000,000 tons.

Just imagine, 1,000 tons of TNT is equivalent to a small nuclear blast. Isn’t that 32 billion nuclear blasts, all in one spot? A magnitude 7.1 has been deemed the equivalent of the Tsar Bomba, it was the largest most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated.

This can be explained by visualizing a train of 666,000 boxcars over 6300 miles long, each 50 foot car carrying 75 tons of TNT. Now imagine that a 9.0 earthquake is 30 times greater than that.

Depending on where the earthquakes epicenter is it could create a 30 to 40 foot tsunami wiping out our shorelines and reaching as far as Japan. Some experts predict the epicenter mights start at the Olympic Peninsula which is just west of Seattle and Tacoma across the Puget Sound according to seismic activity of deep tremors being studied now by researchers.

If the earthquake originates from the Olympic Peninsula and it’s a magnitude 9 earthquake, it could level buildings and tear apart streets, it could be the worst case for cities and towns, says Chris Goldfinger, a marine geologies from the Oregon State University. If the epicenter is just off shore by the Cascadia subduction zone it would produce a tsunami up to 40 feet high and would be the worst case scenario for the coast and bad for inland cities. New data has revealed that Cascadia has four segments instead of the one previously thought, and can rupture independently of one another. If they do rupture independently of one another it would be a less measurable quake at around 8.0 magnitude. But if it produces a magnitude 9 earthquake it will affect the entire subduction zone causing a massive area to be affected.

Either way when the megaquake hits there will be aftershocks and they could continue for weeks, months, or years after the mainshock!

The Juan de Fuca Plate located in the Pacific Ocean and is being pushing east toward and beneath the North American Plate, which is the American continent. In between where the two plates meet is the Cascadia Subduction Zone, a long sloping fault that stretches from Vancouver Island to North California. The two plates are locked together but stress is building, grinding against each other heating the bottom plate and becoming more molten. The movements between the two zones will not be compensated by the episodic tremor and slip displacement. A quick slip of the tectonic plate will create what is called a "mega-thrust earthquake" and the duration is expected to be 2 to 5 minutes until the plates settle again, according to the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network.

Timothy Melbourne of Central Washington University in Ellensburg has studied the Olympic Peninsula which experts now believe will be the epicenter of this colossal earthquake. Timothy indicates it being a “shallow-dipping fault” heading from the coast towards Seattle and Vancouver. Melbourne fears that Seattle could be affected more severely than previously speculated. Ground shaking could be 5x greater than anyone had planned for and that means building codes would not be sufficient to keep buildings or skyscrapers intact.

Still some questions remain. Because Seattle was built on top of the old underground city, could parts of Seattle fall to the layer beneath? When the 9.0 mega thrust earthquake hits will this potentially activate our beautiful scenic volcanoes causing Mount Baker, Glacier Peak, Mount St. Helens, Mount Rainer, or Mount Adams to explode causing even greater damage and death? If a tsunami is at our West, exploding volcano's at our East, and a massive mega-thrust quake is in the center, where can people go to escape. The people of Seattle down to Olympia will be trapped with no way out. One would hope that the experts will be able to figure out how to predict this coming tragedy. Washington is headed for a very apocalyptic future.

What can we do to prepare for this disaster? How can we predict when the earthquake will happen so we can evacuate in time. The researchers are picking up deep tremors all the time beneath Olympia, Tacoma, Seattle and are working hard at figuring out what these deep tremors mean. You can visit the PNSN website and view the researchers daily logs and get the latest earthquake information.

The answers may not come in time, but Washington should stay aware, alert, and prepared. According to my calculations, unless we all move east past the mountains or are able to fly to the air, there will be no where safe and our beautiful green state will suffer a great and powerful blow.

There is no way for experts to predict the time or hour the mega-thrust earthquake will hit, but when it does we will most likely have our children in school, be at work, or asleep in our beds. We may be separated from our loved ones. We cannot live in fear, however, we cannot place our heads in the sand and forget about this until it is to late. We must be prepared at all times having emergency supplies and plans. Inspect our buildings, schools and houses and modify them to be able to withstand an apocalyptic quake, if possible.

Even if we are forewarned hours or days before can Western Washington evacuate in time? It is not just our great city of Seattle that is in jeopardy of massive casualty and destruction but all of Western Washington from the Vancouver islands, Oregon and possibly California. Know if you are in a flood zone, are at sea level, are in a volcanic run off zone, keep informed, don’t wait for the news to tell you, go to the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network website or the Northwest Geodetic Array, and the NOAA Center for Tsunami Research websites to keep up to date, getting daily reports and information. It will be up to each and every one of us to prepare to keep our families safe.